So the alien is just asking themselves, ‘Here I am. “The thought experiment is to imagine an alien just teleported into your body-into your position-and is now finding themselves in your life, faced with these decisions, but without all of the emotional baggage that you have from the fact that you’ve been doing this for years. Geek's Guide to the Galaxy It’s Never Been Easier to Make an Adventure Game Would you then feel like it was a good thing if that lifespan was cut in half-down to 85-by some genetic mutation? Would you say, ‘Yes! Now society will start to change faster’? Or would you say, ‘No, this is such a tragedy that we used to get to live 170 years and now we’re only living 85 years’? So I think flipping that around can really change your intuitions about which lifespan is preferable.” ‘If we lived longer, we would get bored’ or ‘If we lived longer, the pace of change in society would be too slow, because social mores and new innovations change by older generations dying out and new generations getting to take their place in society.’ … To test to see whether your motivation to defend the current lifespan is partly the result of status quo bias, you can imagine that an 85-year lifespan was not the status quo, and that instead the status quo was 170 years. Even if we could find a way to extend that, we shouldn’t.’ And they have various reasons for why that would be bad. “Some people will argue, ‘No, it’s good that the human lifespan is only about 85 years. Do you have good posture? Do you speak in a confident tone of voice? Do you go out and take charge and make things happen? Are you comfortable speaking in front of groups and putting your ideas out there? And what I learned-both from looking at the few academic studies that I actually thought were decent, and then also looking at real-life case studies, like Jeff Bezos-is that social confidence is what matters for winning people over and getting them to look up to you and follow you.” Are you 100 percent certain your company is going to succeed or are you only 30 percent certain? … And then the other type of confidence is what I call ‘social confidence,’ and that’s about how self-assured you are.
“We tend to conflate two different things that we mean by the word ‘confidence.’ One of them I call ‘epistemic confidence,’ and that’s how much certainty you have in your beliefs. And check out some highlights from the discussion below.
Listen to the complete interview with Julia Galef in Episode 462 of Geek’s Guide to the Galaxy (above). And yet he fails to learn from those instances of missed predictions because instead he just shrugs and says, ‘Well, the world didn’t behave the way it should have.'” “He’s interacted with non-Vulcans before, and so presumably he’s had lots of opportunities to see that, actually, lots of people don’t behave the way he thinks they-rationally -should behave.
#Julia galef email update#
Spock’s biggest weakness is his failure to understand that other people don’t always behave “logically.” He also makes no attempt to update his approach, even when his mistakes get his crewmates killed. “The more confident he says he is that something will happen-that the ship will crash, or that they will find survivors-the less likely it is to happen, and the less confident he is in something, the more likely it is to happen,” Galef says. Not only does Spock have a terrible track record-events he describes as “impossible” happen 83 percent of the time-but his confidence level is actually anti-correlated with reality. The results, which appear in Galef’s new book The Scout Mindset, are devastating. “I catalogued all instances in which Spock made a prediction and that prediction either came true or didn’t.” “I went through all of the Star Trek episodes and movies-all of the transcripts that I could find-and searched for any instance in which Spock is using the words ‘odds,’ ‘probability,’ ‘chance,’ ‘definitely,’ ‘probably,’ etc.,” she says. Galef was curious to see exactly how often these predictions pan out. In the franchise, Spock makes confident predictions based on his superior Vulcan mind.
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